The gold price is on the move again, climbing to $4,722.47 as the US dollar selloff accelerates during the American session. This surge follows a weaker-than-expected US jobless claims report released earlier today, which reignited expectations of a dovish Fed pivot. With the gold price now trading above the 20‑day moving average and momentum clearly bullish, the question is whether buyers have enough steam to challenge the next key resistance at $4,746. This session's price action will determine if gold can close near the highs or if profit‑taking emerges before the weekend.
Gold Market Overview — DXY Selloff Fuels Bullish Momentum
Macro Context
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a fresh one‑month low as Treasury yields retreated. The 10‑year yield slipped below 4.20% after the jobless claims data, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June. Gold benefits from a weaker dollar because it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. Additionally, lingering geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to support safe‑haven demand, keeping the bid under the gold price.
Session Outlook
During the American session, liquidity is expected to be moderate ahead of the weekend. Traders will watch for further dollar weakness as US equity futures rise. The key trigger for gold today is any unexpected comments from Fed speakers scheduled later. A break above $4,746 could attract momentum buyers, while a failure to hold $4,703 would signal exhaustion. Expect a range of around $4,703–$4,746 for the remainder of the session based on the ATR of $13.57.
Technical Analysis — Gold Price Structure Remains Bullish
The H4 chart shows a clear bullish structure. The gold price is trading above all three major moving averages, confirming an uptrend. The RSI(14) at 62.5 is in neutral territory, leaving room for further upside before overbought conditions.
Moving Average Structure
The MA20 at $4,685.64 is below current price, indicating short‑term bullish momentum. The MA50 at $4,623.00 acts as a solid mid‑term support, while the MA200 at $4,672.32 confirms the long‑term bull market. The EMA configuration (MA20 > MA50) reinforces the positive bias.
RSI and Momentum
RSI at 62.5 is not yet overbought, suggesting that buyers still have room to push higher. A move above 70 would signal exhaustion, but currently, momentum is steady. The ATR(14) of $13.57 indicates normal volatility, supporting a move toward $4,746 without being extreme.
Key Price Levels
| Level | Value | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| S2 | $4,669.34 | H4/Daily |
| S1 | $4,702.94 | H4 |
| R1 | $4,745.97 | H4 |
| R2 | $4,721.86 | H4 |
The daily pivot targets are $4,857 upside and $4,667 downside. The 4‑hour pivot shows upside target $4,746 and downside $4,703. The 1‑hour targets are $4,753 and $4,703.
Fundamental Drivers — Jobless Claims Pressures the Dollar
Today's US jobless claims rose to 245K, above the consensus of 230K, signalling a softening labour market. This bolsters the case for the Fed to cut rates as early as June. The dollar weakened across the board, lifting the gold price. Additionally, reports of stalled ceasefire talks in the Middle East kept safe‑haven flows intact.
Key Event to Watch
The only remaining high‑impact event this week is a speech by Fed Governor Waller scheduled at 18:00 GMT. Any dovish comments could push gold toward $4,746 resistance. A hawkish surprise, however, could trigger a pullback to $4,703.
Devil's Advocate — What Could Invalidate the Bullish Bias?
The biggest risk is a sharp reversal in the dollar if Waller pushes back against rate cut expectations. The key reversal level to watch is $4,702.94 (S1). A daily close below that support would break the short‑term uptrend and expose $4,669. If gold fails to hold $4,703 on the 1‑hour chart, bears may regain control, especially with weekend profit‑taking.
Trading Strategy for American Session
Entry Zone: Look for pullbacks to $4,710–$4,715 (near the MA20) for long entries. Stop Loss: Place below $4,700 (1‑hour support). Take Profit Targets: First target $4,735, second target $4,746 (4‑hour resistance). Risk‑reward ratio is better than 1:2 given the ATR. For aggressive traders, a breakout above $4,722 with volume can be chased toward $4,746.
Key Takeaways
- The gold price is trading at $4,722.47, above all key moving averages, confirming a bullish trend.
- Resistance stands at $4,746 (4‑hour pivot) and $4,857 (daily target).
- Support levels: $4,703 (1‑hour/4‑hour) and $4,669 (daily).
- ATR of $13.57 suggests a possible move of that magnitude before the close.
- Today's US jobless claims data triggered dollar weakness, a key catalyst for gold.
- A break above $4,746 could open the path to $4,857 in the coming sessions.
Conclusion
With the dollar under pressure and the gold price holding above moving averages, the bias remains bullish for the American session. The key level to watch is $4,746. A clean break above that could accelerate gains, while a failure to hold $4,703 would signal a temporary top. Traders should manage risk carefully ahead of the weekend and the Fed speech.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is gold price rising today?
- Gold is rising due to a weaker US dollar after disappointing jobless claims data, which reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts. The gold price is currently at $4,722.
- What is the next resistance level for gold?
- The immediate resistance is $4,746, based on the 4‑hour pivot. A break above that could lead to $4,857 on the daily chart.
- Where should I place a stop loss for a gold long trade?
- A reasonable stop loss for today's session is below $4,700, which is just under the 1‑hour support at $4,703. This gives room for volatility while protecting capital.
- Is gold overbought right now?
- No. The RSI(14) is at 62.5, which is neutral and below the overbought threshold of 70. This leaves room for further upside before exhaustion sets in.
- What could trigger a gold price reversal?
- A hawkish surprise from Fed Governor Waller's speech later today could strengthen the dollar and push gold back to support at $4,703 or even $4,669.
Trading Gold (XAU/USD) carries significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.